The three leagues I found I can select a wager only based on the odds are the following: England Championship League, Bulgaria (main League), and Belgium Jupiler League.
When I say to select a bet according on odds only I mean that no other variables - teams form, injury or any other info or news - is taken into account. I'll go deeper with direct examples. But I decided not to enter the numbers in details of my studio, - should be a reason to invite you to check by your self.
- Championship: Select all home wins in this league all season long as the home team has an average odds ranging from 2.00 to 2.50 - the only other condition is that the home team must have at least 1 home victory in head-to-head matches in the last 5 games played . (From the 3 leagues i showed here this is the only one that has a second variable as well as odds).
- Bulgaria: Select all home wins as the home team has an average odds ranging from 1.95 to 2.50 - no other condition is required for this league - just this range of odds for the selection.
- Jupiler League (Belgium) every time the home team has an average odds ranging from 4.00 to 5.90 - no other condition is required for the selection.
I invite you to check these Leagues on last 2 season, round by round.
In the examples thus indicated, betting in each championship on each match that meets these conditions will give us back a decent profit at the end of each season. If this system will be confirmed will give the advantage to be followed easily - without break your head to track news or having to analyze - (though it will require constancy in following it without jumping events or being discouraged by bad runs).
I will continue to test it in the current season but as I said at the beginning of this article, I will not use it in my betting system neither I will invest money - at least for the time being!
i'm not agree. :)
Domestic animals expect food when they see the person who usually feeds them. We know that all these rather crude expectations of uniformity are liable to be misleading. The man who has fed the chicken every day throughout its life at last wrings its neck instead, showing that more refined views as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to the chicken.
Inductivist Turkey , Bertrand Russel.
I think this Is cherry picking. You will always find patterns like this If you afterwards analyse lots of data. I think you need to find out the "why". And Is It based on the opening or closing price ? Any difference between drifters and steamers ?
this is just variance, you just found some extremes and the sample is way to small. Even in championship, that there are 24 teams, so 13 games x 46 matchdays its 552 games. I do not know how many meet your your criteria, i will assume about 40%, which is close to 221 games, even doubling it when counting the 2 last seasons its 442, for the other leagues that you mention the sample is much smaller. In such numbers you cannot have any safe conclusions. Plus the bookies of course have those stats available and it is only one for their parameters of creating the odds, with all the other parameters, form, current league table and targets, news, wagers already made etc giving them the edge against somebody that exclusively looks at one statistic that happened to occur more frequently than expected in last couple years.
It is the wrong way around and huge statistical mistake. You will aways find patterns in past events! But you cannot predict future event with this data. What you can do, you say A happens when B happens and then take a look at past events and look if your hypothesis is true, but not look into the data and say afterwards what happens. That´s the wrong approach
However, the biggest investors in Asian Market bet based on numbers. They set their models and have set researchers for every league they care for and based on their knowledge they give ratings to each team and player. Having the line-ups they can predict successfully the value bet, take it and have long term profit. But this is far deeper research than just looking the h2h and past results and it's for professionals to work. Patterns exist everywhere. For example in UAE league if you have the balls to constantly bet against the odds movements in asian market, then you should end up with some profit. But you need balls to go against all specialists and the odds-melting. And of course you don't always need to go against the specialist. If someone suggests Sporting Cristal -0.75 in Peru and odds drop to -1.25, the value easily moves to +1.25 and a 2-1 final result is a winner for both. To end this, modern betting has to do with odds and numbers, but in the way you present it here. You are on a good path though.
i am betting only per statistics and odds with my own system and its the best one by far. exceptions are all kind of cups
Very interested, a long time ago i too I Was playing statistic bet on league. Peace!
How is such unscientific nonsense filed under betting advice?
Stats and odds are fundamentals but only mementum is the key. 3 last games Home for the host and 3 last games for the visitor should be taken as datas.