What is a Value Bet?

A Value Bet is a bet on a sporting outcome whose probability of occurrence has been underestimated by the bookmaker. Each bookmaker has a tool that generates odds by taking into account several parameters, mainly statistical data. However, certain key elements linked to the match may not be taken into account (motivation, stakes, injuries, player form, etc.). Consequently, the human approach, by a professional, remains the best way to determine the odds. From this point of view, a Value Bet corresponds to odds that are considered to be wrong, both objectively and subjectively.

Example of a Value Bet

Let's take a concrete example. Let's assume a La Liga match between FC Barcelona and Levante, respectively 2nd and 19th in the league. The bookmaker proposes odds of 1.15 for FC Barcelona to win, meaning that he believes FCB have an 87% chance of winning the match. However, given previous meetings and the stakes involved, it is considered almost certain that Barcelona will win. Consequently, we consider that the odds allocated to the favourite should be at least 95%, i.e. odds of around 1.05. Since the objective probability of the event as a percentage is greater than the odds proposed by the bookmaker, we have a Value Bet. The greater the difference between the two percentages, the more profitable the Value Bet.

Value Bet in tennis and soccer

The notion of Value Bet is not exclusive to soccer; it also applies to tennis. The principle is the same: the greater the percentage difference between the odds offered by the bookmaker and the objective probability percentage you offer on an event, the more profitable the Value Bet.

Where can I find a Value Bet?

There's no specific place where you can find a Value Bet. The real difficulty lies in the fact that bookmakers are experienced professionals who don't want to lose money easily. They carefully calculate various statistical data before offering odds. However, with a little effort and experience, it is quite possible to detect Value Bets.

How to calculate a Value Bet

The Value Bet is a real asset for punters. It's one of the best ways to manage your bankroll over the long term. Finding a Value Bet always requires analysis and experience. There are two formulas for determining your Value Bet index: the probability percentage formula (100/Quote) and the odds calculation formula ((1/probability percentage) x 100).