What is variance?
When speaking generally we often identify variance with losing streak which i guess isn't far from true definiton in our context.
I wasnt aware of this term till about year ago so i will quote few website explanations to bring it closer to average person:
"Variance is a probability distribution curve that applies to anything that has multiple
outcomes with fixed probabilities, from coin flips and dice rolls to poker hands
and batting averages.
In simpler terms, it’s the proven theory that just because something occurs 55% of the time in the long term doesn’t mean it will occur 5.5 times out of 10, or even 55 out of 100."
Coin flip example:
"If we look at a coin flip there are two outcomes heads and tails.
An equally weighted coin means that there is a 50% chance of it landing on either
heads or tails. The nature of variance however means that if we flipped a coin
a 100 times it may land on heads 63 times and tails 37 times or heads 44 times and
tails 56 times.
The results of a 100 coin tosses would not be exactly 50/50 very often.
We know however that with a fair coin toss the odds are 50/50.
With a greater volume of coin tosses the number of heads and tails recorded
should move closer to evens."
In sports betting context if someone hits 2.00 odds 56% of the time troughout the year, that doesnt exclude having months were he had hitrate of 63% or maybe 47% on a bad month.
Dealing with losing streaks
While there isnt simple solution for this,there are few tricks that help a bit, i talk with tennis onmy mind here but it should be applyable to other sports to some extent.
1)Reducing number of bets
-While i personally like to operate on bit bigger volume that can do much more damage when facing a downswing.If you have three good bets on a particular day take the best one. It is better to lose that one (even if other two turned out won) than losing all three in what is probably not the best timing.
2)Take lower odds/play it safe
-This doesnt mean you should jump from 2.10 odds to 1.50 for sole purpose but avoiding those over 2,50/3.00 should be wise at this moment.
If you think about backing underdog play it safe this time and go with game/set handicap or some other bet that makes sense in given match. If the odds arent dead wrong it is much harder to hit picks with 3.0 than those around 1.50 and you will really feel law of numbers here.
3)cut the parlays
-In situation where you cant "buy" a single won bet it is unlikely that you will string few event on a same betslip.Unlike singles parlays are much more tricky and there is thing such as luck and confidence and just pure mathematic laws that play a considerable role here.
4)stick to thing you are good at
-I wouldnt consider myself best at picking winners and for me that is something to reduce when things are not going well.I will go with over games/handicap or whatever else where my results are proven to be better
5)Gameplan
-If your stats are red for a longer period analyze your picks.
Did you change your style and type of bets,is something changed in a period where you did good last season,or players which game you really know suddenly become unreliable?
In tennis there can be weird results at beggining on the season or with players changing surfaces etc etc. I for example had some losses with players who started season very badly comparing to there results at the end of 2016 so that is all something to had in mind.
6)Dont raise stakes
-This is very important and applyes to everyone except very skilled proffesionals that know their exact hitrate on long run and even they might be wrong. This is ideal time to wipe large chung of your bankroll or even everything so be very careful. If you must do something it is better to lower your stakes then raise them. Bet bigger when you're doing good not opposite.
Ok,this is about all that came to my mind at this moment,i know that i didnt said anything new or didnt came with some incrredible breaktrough regarding this topic but there are few things that could be useful to all of you at some point.
Nice article! Agree with most things except the advice to look for lower odds when you are in a bad run. My way of dealing with loosing streaks is simple - just take a break for few days, no betting at all, go out and do something you like. Then come back refreshed and with restored confidence. Always works for me.
true,breaks tend to do good..wha i meant im less likely to land underdog 3.50 win if im not confident at the moment (i dont go more than 2.0 odds often..)
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to double the rate of this disease and leads to the ruin - to think and to turn off the emotions.
a good option is to take a look at your last bets and see when is the quarter or the month of the year that you are in bad run according them. Then, you can change strategy or go for break..